Phone a friend

Most people look on investment as a way to deliver something that they want. 10%. A comfortable retirement. Money for nothing.

But that's wishful thinking. And wishful thinking, well, it's not thinking at all.

My view is very different. Investment is money for something. Money for taking risk - capital risk.

So the rules of investment have to come from one simple truth. You have to put your capital at risk. You stand to lose your money. That is not money for nothing.

Now, before I talk about China, food, cobalt and copper, i want to talk about risk.

I don't know if it's me, but i'm not sure i've met anyone outside the business who understands risk. And i'm not sure i've met anyone inside the business who understands risk either.

The big issue is this; most people, they're chickens. Noone wants to risk anything. Unless the papers say it's ok. By which time, obviously, it isn't.

Investment is a bit like skiing. You only do it if you're rich. And, well, leaning downhill doesn't feel natural at all. But if you don't lean forward then you'll break you're leg. It's funny how my daughter is a better skier than me.

Sometimes taking risk reduces your risk.

Strike that. If you don't take risk, then you are taking too much risk.

But stories about amateurs don't cut it. Anthony Sampson lived down the road from my parents' house. He wrote some big time books; the seven sisters - about the oil majors, the Anatomy of Britain.

I never knew him. But if I could iI'd love to pick his brains right now.

Because it feels like there are new books to be written. About the return of the Spice Road. About infrastructure. About risks our governments didn't take - refusing to invest in infrastructure until it's too late. Until money has halved, and costs have doubled.

Governments never make money, unless by accident.

I'll talk about the big macro call - is it inflation or deflation - later. In the meantime - the money call is how to make cash in an industry - infrastructure - that is full of piss (politicians) and vinegar (rising capital costs).

When i buy an infrastructure stock i look at both. That's why i'm long Brazil.

JRTG